Podcast 39: Does investing in Toronto real estate make sense any more?
Only 18% of newly purchased resale properties are cash flow positive, and around half of new construction closings that were purchased 4-5+ years ago coming online now are cash flow positive. As you may know, cash flow is oxygen. Unless you can supply oxygen from other means to keep this thing alive, or maybe you don’t need oxygen at all (25% of new condo closings don’t have mortgages), becoming a landlord is a losing proposition.
Is it even financially viable to invest in Toronto real estate any more?
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there's a lot of mixed signals in the housing market right now prices are kind of on the rebound since the beginning of this year yet new listings are at an all-time low so what actually is happening in this market stay tuned to this video and let's talk about it look I get it the Toronto real estate market is confusing whether you're a new or experienced investor or just looking for a home to raise your family in join us at Broadview table talks as you sit around the table with my friends talk about the real estate and the ever-changing market in Toronto before we get into this video I do want to say and I'm sure you know this we're in a housing shortage Ontario needs 1.5 million homes over the next decade to meet the current housing demand that's 150 000 homes per year that we have to build and we're not meeting that demand at all and I don't see how we're going to do it whether it's through red tape or the cost and the ROI of building something labor shortages materials costs and just doesn't make sense anymore we're not able to meet that demand so we're out of Supply imbalance and that is causing a big issue also don't forget that if inflation targets are two percent right now they're a lot higher than that but minimum two percent that means the asset price is going to go up by two percent if everything stays the same demand stays the same over the next whatever however long in perpetuity in fact because essentially it's a strong demand pretty much near a limited demand and very limited Supply so what do you think that's going to do to prices right it's just economics 101. the way out of this situation is to build more homes and unfortunately we're trying everything we can to do it but we just can't meet that demand in my next podcast we're going to be talking with an architect who's actually pretty prominent and he's actually creating things to do multiplexes duplexes triplexes things like that Garden suites Lane Suites so that's always important to be able to create more housing but I don't even think that's enough to meet that demand you know the federal government just had a new first time home buyers credit I think it's called but that's not even enough to crack the dent into buying homes it's just in fact gonna feel further demand so if we get into the numbers we're going to look at the dark line over here as the current year and this is where it's going right so the average price is on uptick right now and the not so dark line or the less dark line is actually last year 2022 and then 21 is a medium color line and then in the dotted super light line that's 20 20. I left the 2020 line in there because that's when the pandemic hit and that's when Ontario got really shut down right it was a March 2020 if you remember so if you look at the prices difference between April 20 2020 till now we're at a 40 premium so we're still well above pre-pandemic levels you know it's called 30 higher from the peak of pre-pandemic when it actually started back in March that's where the average price is right now if you look at the 2022 and 21 as kind of anomaly years and you kind of remove them all together and just like a blip in the radar of the history that's probably what's going to happen I mean you can kind of look down at the average price trend line you can see a little big dip down here during the pandemic during covid-19 actually went up and then went back down so we're kind of getting back to where the pre-pandemic levels are at the end of the day actually I'm looking at this all trap that's detached homes so getting back to all the Toronto real estate board here the number of sales is starting to creep back up again to before everything got shut down and before all the weird times and interesting times I should say so yeah new listings coming back on the market way lower than what they were for the past two years but we're almost there from where they were back to us dare I say normalized Market the only thing that's different is the high interest rate environment that we're in right now so with that we have the active listings sure great kind of on Pace with everything the average days on Market sure it's going higher than what they were before obviously because of higher interest rates but still nowhere not that much different than where they were pre-pandemic but the average sales to this price that's kind of concerning to me see how everything's just above the 100 mark right it could be the spring Market it could be just you know seasonality and everybody's kind of sick of just sitting on the sidelines and people need to move at the end of the day so that's why they're doing it and there's bidding wars because there's not enough Supply right the sales to new listings ratio that's kind of like a leading indicator kind of if you will because what it does is it looks at given the amount of sales that's happening assuming it's constant with a new inventory that comes to the market this month if that pace of sales continues on then that means we're not going to have enough Supply to meet that Demand right that's what it just basically means traditionally in the past anywhere from 40 to 60 percent was kind of a balanced Market there's like 10 above or below the 50 Mark which kind of makes sense and the reason why I know that is because I actually track the sales to new listings ratio in a historic context so it's kind of hard to see here because there's so many ups and downs because not a lot of people list in certain times of the year like no one really lists in August and no one was in December because they're thinking about summer and they're thinking about Christmas but the global financial crisis it was like 25 and then you see during the panda it really hit down to about 40 or so so it became a more of a buyer's market and if you remember during the pandemic it was around 120 it was crazy right because all that money poured in the financial system and nobody really had anywhere to spend that money so they put it onto housing plus everyone's working from home they needed more space so everyone's trading up their homes plus rates were so low so if we're looking at that I think the next few months it's going to be an issue price is going to be on the rise and you can see that in the months of inventory too right so again looking at the historic months of inventory historic months of inventory were approaching around one and a half months right now last year in January was around three months and uh before that when the right hiking cycle hit it was just above three months of inventory but before that it was almost under one percent actually as well under one percent right during the pandemic during the covet times the historic graph of months of inventory during the global financial crisis it hit eight months eight and a half months of inventory so the months of inventory indicator is just basically taking the active inventory divided by the number of sales and if nothing else came on the market in time was able to freeze and the pace of sales kept going how many months would it take to eat through that inventory so at the Peak at the worst time when things weren't moving it was eight and a half months but you can kind of see around here anywhere from like under four months three months that's kind of normal but now we're at one and a half months so it's pretty hot Market let's just say so if you think about it the reason why people want to move is because you have an expanding family you might need extra space you might need more bedrooms or perhaps you want to move back to the city because now you have to go back to work and the commute times are killing you or perhaps you're maybe downsizing because it's an empty nest and you're not utilizing this house there's all this capital in your property and you have other Investments maybe you want to retire and spend that money I don't know maybe you want to put into more liquid Investments as well too and produce some cash flow and just live off of the cash flow there's a lot of reasons why people want to sell and these people generally don't care about where the Market's going to go not as much I mean as long as it's a kind of like a decent time it just kind of if the market starts picking up again because people start seeing stability in the interest rates that you're boring at and the weather's good and you know they just feel like they got to get into the market before it gets too late and they're going to feel like they're priced out even more than they were when the rates come down because eventually they will come down so people are jumping into the market it just kind of Spurs it more and then it kind of creates this like whole catchment too where it's going to hurt inflation again and inflation is going to bring up the rates even more it's going to bring them the cost and just because there's a really nasty spiral so I just feel like there's a lot of amplification because we're in such uncertain times right now a lot of people making rash decisions I think that this is a very unique time and there's always opportunity in this market every situation that we're talking about is custom tailored to your situation and every situation is different but the overall Market this is what it looks like all right so if you have any questions feel free to reach out book an appointment in the link below and I'd love to talk to you and tell you more about what's actually happening in the market and forget about the headlines talk soon add it up thanks for sticking out to the very end I hope you got some value out of this do me a favor please press like And subscribe but more than anything leave me some feedback so we know what to produce for you going forward thanks again
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